The International Air Transport Association (IATA) anticipates that the number of travelers worldwide will reach 4.0 billion by 2024 (counting multi-sector connections as one passenger), exceeding that of pre-COVID-19 (103 percent of the total of 2019).
In light of the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets, the expectation for the shape of the near-term recovery has somewhat shifted. Despite the latest update to IATA’s long-term outlook, the overall picture remains the same as in November, before the announcement of the Omicron variant.
The February update to the long-term forecast includes the following highlights:
In 2021, overall traveler numbers were 47 percent of 2019 levels. As a result, this figure is expected to increase to 83 percent in 2022, 94 percent in 2023, 103 percent in 2024, and 111 percent in 2025.
In 2021, international traveler numbers were 27 percent of 2019 levels. This is expected to increase to 69 percent in 2022, 82 percent in 2023, 92 percent in 2024, and 101 percent in 2025.
Compared with November, there is a more pessimistic outlook for domestic traveler numbers. Despite a recovery in the US domestic market, the same is not true for the other major domestic markets, namely China, Canada, Japan, and Australia. The pace of recovery is not the same in all markets and sectors.
Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are somewhat weaker in the short term due to the slow pace of vaccination as well as the impact of the global recession on developing economies. As a result, passenger numbers to/from/within Africa will recover at a slower rate than in other regions, reaching 76 percent of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025 (101 percent).
As the Middle East has fewer short-haul markets, its focus on long-haul connectivity through its hubs will result in a slower recovery. The number of passengers traveling from/to/within the Middle East is expected to reach 81 percent of 2019 levels in 2022, 98 percent in 2024 and 105 percent in 2025.
The forecast does not account for the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Air transport, as a whole, is resilient to shocks and this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of this industry, according to information provided by IATA. Although it is too early to predict the near-term consequences of the conflict for the aviation sector, it is clear that there will be some downside risks, particularly for markets with exposure to the conflict.
Sensitivity factors will include geographical extent, severity, duration of sanctions, and airspace closures. The most significant impact would be felt in Russia, Ukraine, and neighboring countries. Before COVID-19, Russia was the 11th largest market in passenger numbers for air transport services, including its domestic market. Ukraine ranked 48th.